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Updated: June 16, 2026
If you bought the Labubu "Catch the Win" plush at launch — or if you're thinking about buying one now — you're probably wondering the same thing: is this thing going to go up in price?
It's a fair question. The World Cup is a finite event. Pop Mart has confirmed restocks. The resale market has been a rollercoaster. So what happens next?
Let's look at the actual price data, the market dynamics, and three possible scenarios for where this collection is headed.
Before we predict the future, let's understand what's already happened. The "Catch the Win" plush has gone through a very specific lifecycle:
| Event | Price (RMB) | vs. Retail (¥599) |
|---|---|---|
| Launch week on DeWu/Poizon | **¥710–¥718** | **+20%** |
| Retail MSRP (China) | ¥599 | — |
| Retail MSRP (US) | ~$150 | — |
The collection launched to strong demand. Flippers jumped in. Resale prices on Poizon (China's main secondary platform) hit ¥718 — about 20% above retail. It looked like a hot commodity.
Then something interesting happened.
| Event | Price (RMB) | vs. Retail |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-May | **~¥630** | +5% |
| Late May | **~¥600** | ~0% |
| June 11 (day before Opening Ceremony) | **~¥577** | **-3.7%** |
For six straight weeks, the price drifted downward. By the day before the World Cup kicked off, the "Catch the Win" plush was trading below retail on secondary markets. Flippers who bought at ¥710 in April were sitting on losses.
This is a crucial data point: even without restocks, the natural market demand wasn't enough to sustain a premium. The hype from the April launch had completely worn off.
| Date | Price (RMB) | vs. Retail |
|---|---|---|
| June 11 | ¥577 | -3.7% |
| June 12 (Opening Ceremony) | ¥586 | -2.2% |
| June 13 | ¥592 | -1.2% |
| June 14–16 | **¥620–¥660** | **+3% to +10%** |
LABUBU's appearance at the Opening Ceremony on June 12 sent shockwaves through the market. Sales surged 30x. Search volume jumped 300%. The plush price recovered from below retail to about 5–10% above MSRP.
But here's the key detail: it still hasn't reached the ¥718 peak from launch day in April. The Opening Ceremony bounce was real — but it wasn't enough to surpass the initial hype.
As of June 16, 2026, the FIFA collection has split into three distinct value tiers:
| Item | Retail (USD) | Current Resale | Multiple | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Glass Cup Hidden "Coronation Moment"** | $12.99 | **$80–$110** | **5x–7x** | 📈 Rising |
| **Mini Bag Hidden "Coronation Moment"** | $29.99 | **$75–$80** | **2.5x** | 📈 Stable |
| **Lanyard Hidden** | $29.99 | **$50–$65** | **~2x** | 📈 Stable |
These are the genuine winners. Low retail price + low pull rate + high desirability = strong appreciation. The glass cup, in particular, has outperformed everything else in the collection.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| MSRP (US) | $150 |
| Current Resale | **$128–$165** |
| All-Time High | **$180–$200** (launch week + post-ceremony spike) |
| Current Premium | **-15% to +10%** |
| Trend | ⚠️ Volatile |
The plush is the question mark. It has shown it can spike (+20% at launch, +27% post-ceremony), but those spikes don't last. Within days of each peak, prices reverted toward retail.
If you buy a blind box and get a common (non-hidden) variant, expect it to be worth less than retail on the secondary market. This is standard for blind boxes — the common items fund the hidden chase.
Here's where things get interesting. The World Cup is still playing out. What happens next depends on factors we can track in real time.
What happens: After the World Cup ends on July 19, event-driven demand evaporates. Casual buyers move on. Pop Mart stops active restocks. The collection enters a slow decline.
Expected outcome by late 2026:
| Item | Projected Price |
|---|---|
| **Plush Doll** | **$100–$130** (below MSRP) |
| **Keychain** | **$20–$28** (below MSRP) |
| **Hidden Glass Cup** | **$40–$60** (down from $80–$110) |
| **Common Blind Boxes** | **50–70% of retail** |
Why this is likely: This is what happened to the plush during May and early June, before the Opening Ceremony revived it. Without another event-driven catalyst, the natural state of this market is soft. History supports this — the 2022 Qatar World Cup saw similar post-event declines, with some items dropping 60–80% from peak.
Supporting evidence: Industry analysts at Yicai Global and multiple Chinese financial outlets have explicitly warned that "many ultra-hot products have seen price drops after selling at inflated highs."
What happens: Pop Mart stops production after the World Cup. Remaining retail inventory dries up. Core collectors who missed the drop create steady secondary demand. Prices stabilize near MSRP and slowly climb over 1–2 years.
Expected outcome by late 2027:
| Item | Projected Price |
|---|---|
| **Plush Doll** | **$150–$200** |
| **Hidden Glass Cup** | **$100–$150** |
Why this could happen: The FIFA collab is unique in Labubu's history — first World Cup, first Chinese IP on the global stage. That historical significance could give it lasting collector value that standard blind box releases don't have.
Supporting evidence: Labubu remains Pop Mart's #1 revenue driver (38.1% of total revenue in 2025). The core collector base is still growing — HSBC projects average purchases per member will rise from 0.99 (2025) to 1.23 (2026). MEGA Labubu and Anniversary editions continue to hold strong premiums, proving that meaningful releases can retain value.
What happens: Labubu appears at another World Cup milestone — the Final on July 19, a trophy ceremony, or a viral social media moment. A second hype wave drives prices above the April peak.
Expected outcome:
| Item | Projected Price |
|---|---|
| **Plush Doll** | **$200–$250** |
| **Hidden Glass Cup** | **$150+** |
Why this could happen: Pop Mart has already invested heavily in this collaboration (Opening Ceremony appearance, official music video). Another activation during the knockout stages or the Final Weekend is plausible. The World Cup is unpredictable — a single viral moment could reignite demand.
Supporting evidence: The Opening Ceremony bounce showed that a single event can move prices 10–15% in 48 hours. If the Final generates even more attention, the effect could be larger.
Understanding the specific factors that affect value helps you make better decisions:
| Factor | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| **Historical significance** | 🟢 Positive | First Chinese IP on FIFA World Cup stage — unique story |
| **Event momentum** | 🟢 Positive (short-term) | World Cup runs through July 19 — still active |
| **Core collector demand** | 🟢 Positive | Labubu fandom is large and global |
| **Hidden variant scarcity** | 🟢 Positive | Pull rates are fixed; secrets are genuinely rare |
| **FIFA licensing** | 🟢 Positive | Licensed collabs expire — creates natural scarcity window |
| Factor | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| **Pop Mart restocks** | 🔴 Negative | Confirmed non-limited; supply keeps coming |
| **Massive production scale** | 🔴 Negative | Pop Mart makes 50M units/month — scarcity is optional |
| **Precedent of decline** | 🔴 Negative | Plush traded below retail for weeks before the ceremony |
| **Broader Labubu cooling** | 🔴 Negative | Google search interest declining since mid-2025 |
| **Counterfeit market** | 🟡 Moderate | Fakes undermine confidence in secondary market pricing |
The negatives currently outweigh the positives — for the plush doll. The hidden variants are a different story: genuine scarcity + low entry price + high demand is a formula that has historically worked well for collectibles.
Most of the price data comes from Chinese secondary platforms (Poizon/DeWu, Xianyu). The US market behaves differently:
| Factor | China Market | US Market |
|---|---|---|
| **Labubu awareness** | Very high (mainstream) | Moderate (growing, still niche) |
| **Secondary market** | Mature (Poizon, Xianyu) | Immature (StockX, eBay) |
| **Resale volume** | High | Low |
| **Price sensitivity** | Moderate | Higher (at $150, US buyers hesitate more) |
| **Post-event demand** | Likely to fade fast | Unknown — smaller buyer pool |
What this means: If you're a US collector, the Chinese secondary market data is directional but not definitive. The US market is smaller and less liquid, which means:
Looking at previous World Cup merchandise helps set realistic expectations:
| Item | Retail | Peak Resale | Post-Event | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **2022 Qatar: Messi Figurine** | ¥69 | ¥609 (8x) | Dropped significantly | 8x at peak |
| **2022 Qatar: Argentina Team Items** | Varies | 3x–5x | 50–80% drop from peak | — |
| **2026 FIFA: Labubu Plush** | $150 | $200 (1.3x) | Unknown | 1.3x at peak |
| **2026 FIFA: Labubu Glass Cup Hidden** | $12.99 | $110 (7x) | Unknown | **7x at peak** |
The Labubu plush has underperformed compared to past World Cup collectibles (only 1.3x peak vs. 8x for the Messi figurine). But the hidden glass cup at 7x is right up there with the best of them.
| Scenario | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| **You want to keep it** | ✅ Hold. Enjoy it. It's a great collectible. |
| **You want to flip it short-term** | ⚠️ Sell during the World Cup (before July 19). The post-tournament outlook is soft. |
| **You want to hold long-term** | 🟡 Hold but manage expectations. This is unlikely to be a 5x investment. Best case: slow appreciation to $200 over 2–3 years. |
| Item | Buy? | Why |
|---|---|---|
| **Plush at MSRP ($150)** | ✅ Yes | Fair price for a unique collectible |
| **Plush at resale ($180+)** | ❌ No | Restocks will bring it back to MSRP |
| **Keychain ($32.99)** | ✅ Yes | Affordable, wearable, easily tradeable |
| **Blind boxes (any)** | ⚠️ Only for fun | Common pulls lose value; hidden pulls are a lottery |
| **Glass cup blind boxes specifically** | 🟡 If you enjoy the chase | Highest potential return ($12.99 → $80–$110), but also highest risk of getting a common |
For investment purposes, the Labubu FIFA collection is best understood as a short-to-medium-term event play, not a long-term wealth builder.
Will Labubu FIFA figures increase in value?
| Item | Short-Term (During World Cup) | Medium-Term (6 months post-event) | Long-Term (2+ years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **"Catch the Win" Plush** | ⚠️ Stable to slightly up | 📉 Likely below MSRP | ⚠️ Uncertain — depends on production end |
| **Hidden Glass Cup** | 📈 Strong (5–7x premium) | 📉 Partial correction (2–3x likely) | 📈 Could appreciate if properly preserved |
| **Keychain Pendant** | 🟡 Stable | 📉 Slight decline | 🟡 Stable (wearable items hold value better) |
| **Common Blind Boxes** | 📉 Below retail | 📉 Below retail | 📉 Below retail |
The plush doll has had its moment. The Opening Ceremony bounce brought it back to life, but without another catalyst, the long-term trend points down. Buy it because you love Labubu and soccer — not because you expect to retire on it.
The hidden blind box variants (especially the glass cup) are the real collectors' items in this lineup. If you can pull one at $12.99, you've got something genuinely scarce with proven demand.
The smartest move: Buy at MSRP, enjoy the World Cup, and decide what to do after July 19. That's when the real test of value begins.
Are you holding Labubu FIFA items for investment, or did you buy just for fun? What's your prediction for post-World Cup prices?
